Monday, December 1, 2008

Crise: Lições a tirar - Mesa redonda com o Prof. James e Convidados

Há muitas lições a tirar desta crise. Algumas dizem respeito à governança corporativa, outras à ética e marcos regulatórios. Todas são importantes, mas quem sabe uma das mais importantes pertença exclusivamente ao âmago do objetivo das escolas de negócios: como ensinar a perceber sinais antecipados da crise para ensinar a agir com convicção sobre informação incompleta e fragmentada e sobre a qual poucos acreditam ate que é tarde demais.

Data: 12/12/2008
Horário: 19h

Local: Unidade Butantã da FIA
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Thursday, November 27, 2008

Massive losses signal lack of judgment in currency bets

In emerging markets globalization typically means to have your market flooded with foreign products. Yet a few corporations, while still firmly grounded in their home emerging markets, have wet their feet abroad and have learned the hard way.

The large corporations which ventured out of advanced economies first probably have no one left on their staff who still remembers what it felt to be a pioneer venturing abroad. Yet, for an emerging market corporation frequently there are no known precedents, and of course, there are staffing problems to overcome.

One of the most difficult staffing problems became painfully obvious in the last three months, as the American dollar suddenly appreciated, reverting its longer term depreciation. The trend reversion caught most swap operators in emerging markets wrong footed. Swap operators had become used to a deteriorating dollar and seem not to have though twice that, under abnormal circumstances, such as the current financial crunch and its ensuing recession, the price of commodities would fall and the dollar with which they are paid scarcer and dearer.

Yet, in emerging markets currency swap operators continued to bet on the appreciation of their local currencies against the dollar, generating massive losses to their employers.

Brazil’s Aracruz was one of the first to get beaten to the ground. Informed sources claim that it may take Aracruz, the world’s largest producer of pulp from eucalyptus, about a decade to regain its ground. Brazil’s Votarantim’s own paper and pulp operation (VCP) got beaten twice, first as shareholder of Aracruz and then in a bad currency bet of its own, losing about a billion dollars more. Steelmaker Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) may have lost $700 million in a sour ADR swap. Poultry farm Sadia fired its CFO, who wasted $415 million, allegedly by indulging on bad currency debts beyond his mandate.

But Brazilian corporations were not alone, Comercial Mexicana, Mexico’s second or third largest retailer, threw the towel after wasting $4 billion on derivatives contracts (see The Economist, October 16). The Mexican tortilla maker Gruma had its trading halted as it disclosed losses amounting to almost $700 million. Asian corporations were not spared either. Citic Pacific, is a Hong Kong-listed conglomerate partly owned by the Chinese government and generated bad currency debt close to $2 billion, (see The Australian, October 22nd). Operators in Latin America, and in China, seem to know how to implement swaps but miss on the direction of the hedge to be made.

Such widespread bad currency debts suggest that there is a swap-training gap in emerging markets. Because the reported losses, so far, have been more frequent and larger, in Latin America, it is possible that the training gap may be larger there. This region is a relative newcomer to globalized operations and swap operators may not be as experienced, or the information sources on which their work depend, not as developed.

Of course, operators are not alone, for instance, they are rewarded on bonuses when they succeed encouraging them to take substantial risks. Their bosses should have known better, but on the other hand, aren’t they all relatively new to the international arena? The size of the losses, painful as they have been, is in itself an opportunity to internationally-oriented business schools in emerging markets, for proper training is obviously lacking.

Alfredo Behrens
Professor of Cross-Cultural Management
FIA International Executive MBA
November 2008

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Crisis and Opportunity

A few weeks ago we were at Vanderbilt University with FIA’s Executive MBA, and a week later, I was in London, participating in the International Accreditation Council of AMBA – Association of MBAs.

These were important times in the current economic crisis; in the U.S., Congress rejected the original Bush administration rescue package on the day we started our classes, and in London, during our meeting with an executive from RBS - Royal Bank of Scotland his company lost over a Billion pounds while we spoke!

Opportunities? Whoever is buying these shares, like Mr. Warren Buffet, is acquiring big companies at low prices. Countries like Brazil, which took more a conservative approach in financial markets, are likely to suffer less damage and will recover faster.

If financial value created by speculative bubbles is lost, concrete positions in productive assets are opportunities for growth. According to "Success Made in Brazil" a book by Donald Sull of Harvard University, Brazilian executives are masters at dealing with volatility. Living for years with volatile rollercoaster markets, they have learnt to hoard liquidity in times of plenty, develop talents and skills in readiness for more favorable times, and to act quickly and decisively when golden opportunities arise.

In personal terms, this is the time to protect ourselves from the storm; to study and to prepare oneself for golden opportunities in companies and businesses that will emerge even stronger from a time of crisis.

James Wright

Crise e Oportunidade

Nas últimas semanas estivemos em Vanderbilt com a turma do MBA Executivo Internacional, e uma semana depois, estive em Londres, participando do Conselho Internacional de Credenciamento da AMBA.

Foram momentos importantes na atual crise econômica; nos EUA, o Congresso Norte Americano recusou a proposta de salvamento inicial do governo Bush no dia que começamos nossas aulas; em Londres, um Conselheiro representando o RBS – Royal Bank of Scotland, agüentou numa reunião durante o qual seu banco perdeu 25% de seu valor na bolsa!

Oportunidades? Quem está comprando estas ações está adquirindo posições em empresas expressivas a preço baixo! Os países e setores que se portaram de maneira mais conservadora estão aptos a atravessarem a crise com menor desgaste e recuperarem suas posições de desenvolvimento mais rapidamente.

Se valores inflados por bolhas especulativas se esvaiam, posições concretas em ativos produtivas são oportunidades de crescimento. Segundo apurou o livro “Sucesso Made in Brazil” de Donald Sull de Harvard, os executivos brasileiros são mestres em lidar com volatilidade; preservam sua liquidez obtida nos momentos de bonança; desenvolvem talentos e competências essenciais quando os mercados são favoráveis; esperam ativamente nos momentos de intempéries, e agem rápida e decididamente quando as oportunidades aparecem.

Em termos pessoais, isto é o momento de resguardar-se das intempéries; estudar (fazer um curso?) e preparar-se para as oportunidades de ouro nas empresas e negócios que sairão da crise fortalecidos.

James Wright

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Vilanova University Students visit FIA

On October 14th FIA Business School had a group of 25 alumni from Villanova University a private university located in northwest of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania in the United States.

Villanova, named after Saint Thomas of Villanova, is the oldest and largest Catholic university in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. For more than a decade, Villanova University has been ranked #1 by U.S. News and World Report in the Best Universities-Masters category in the northern region.

They participated on a lecture of Professor Alfredo Behrens on “Brazilian Culture and Software Exports” and a Case Study on “Strategic Implementation in a Brazilian IT Services Company” with Cadmus executive, Alexandre Bergamo, a former student of our Executive MBA.

See pictures below:





Tuesday, September 16, 2008

QS World MBA Tour 2008

O World MBA Tour é uma feira de prestígio internacional onde as melhores escolas de MBAs do mundo, como Wharton, IMD e Berkeley participaram.
O envento em São Paulo aconteceu em 15 de setembro de 2008 com a participação da FIA, apresentando o International MBA - ministrado em inglês. Confira algumas fotos do evento:


Nosso novo curso gerou grande interesse, pois oferece uma opção part-time às sextas-feiras, além da versão full-time. Nele os executivos brasileiros poderão ter aula em um ambiente internacional, com alunos experientes da Itália, Espanha, França, Índia entre outros, sem abrir mão da sua carreira por 2 anos.

Informações: consulte nosso site

Colabore conosco divulgando esta nova opção para seus conhecidos.

FIA Business School

Monday, August 25, 2008

Lessons from the 2008 Olympic Games

China has used the Olympics as a “coming out party”. Like a young teenager in the modern world scene, China was excited and expectant; it planned and prepared itself meticulously, and held a wonderful party, in the opening and the closing ceremonies, as well as in its sporting performance.

Of course China still has huge inequalities, as well as limited freedom of information, self-expression and political choice. However, it is quite clear that the vast majority of the Chinese people are supportive of this huge collective effort to modernize and achieve a better standard of living, and a leadership position in the world. At least in the number of medals won they have clearly shown that in Olympic sports they have achieved a place among the world leaders!

Should Brazil emulate this investment in sports? Does that make sense in economic, political and social terms? Obviously not, if one measures success by the number of gold medals won. Would anything change if Brazil, instead of a meager 15 medals, including 3 gold, had won 20 gold medals instead? The immediate and simplistic answer seems to be clearly “no”.

However, if sports in general were truly valued, our companies, government and society would invest a lot more in sport preparation of our young generations. We would have thousands, perhaps millions of aspiring athletes; 4 to 6 hours of school would be complemented by 2-3 hours of sports activities every day; our young people would have less time for drugs, crimes and for foolish pastimes; the would learn more about values and like persistence, determination, practice, and constant improvement. They would learn more about individual and group work, and they would learn respect, competence and to be competitive. They would learn to win with grace and to lose honorably.

With a strong sports culture, we would prepare more and better leaders and team players; we would have a healthier, more active population (with fewer smokers!), and our country would be more recognized internationally and project a positive aspect of its culture and people.

It is very clear that once we go beyond a simplistic cost analysis which compares only the cost of a stadium with the value of tickets sold, we will realize that developing a strong sports culture together with education can be a fundamental force to forge a better society.

Congratulations to China on their Olympic effort!

James Wright
Director, FIA Business School

Lições dos Jogos Olímpicos de 2008

A China fez uso das Olimpíadas como uma festa de debutante. Tal como uma jovem adolescente no moderno cenário mundial, a população chinesa estava ansiosa e cheia de expectativas; planejou, preparou meticulosamente e realizou uma maravilhosa festa nas cerimônias de abertura e encerramento, assim como executou com afinco sua performance desportiva.

Claro que a China convive com enormes desigualdades, bem como um limitado acesso à informação e pouquíssima liberdade de expressão e escolha política. No entanto, é bastante claro que a grande maioria do povo chinês em geral apóia este enorme esforço coletivo de modernização, visando atingir um melhor nível de vida para sua população, bem como uma posição de liderança no mundo. O número de medalhas alcançadas mostra claramente que, pelo menos no esporte olímpico, eles têm conseguido um lugar entre os líderes mundiais!

Uma pergunta que vale ouro; o Brasil deveria imitar esse investimento no esporte? Será que tal investimento faz sentido em termos econômicos, políticos e sociais? É evidente que não, se for um sucesso medido pelo número de medalhas de ouro conquistadas. Mudaria alguma coisa se o Brasil, em vez de escassas 15 medalhas ( 3 de ouro), houvesse alcançado 20 medalhas de ouro? Á primeira vista, a resposta simplista é um sonoro “não”.

Mas imagine por um instante se esportes em geral, fossem verdadeiramente valorizados. As nossas empresas, o Governo e a sociedade investiriam muito mais na preparação esportiva de nossos jovens. Teríamos então milhares, não, milhões de jovens aspirantes a atletas olímpicos; as 4 a 6 horas diárias de estudo seriam complementada por 2 a 3 horas de atividades esportivas todos os dias, e os nossos jovens teriam menos tempo para drogas, criminalidade e para a passatempos tolos; aprenderiam de maneira prática sobre valores como a persistência, a determinação, e a importância de treinar e da melhoria constante. Iriam aprender sobre trabalho em grupo e responsabilidades individuais, e iriam aprender a respeitar a competência a serem mais competitivos. Aprenderiam a vencer com elegância e a perder lutando de forma honrada. Com uma forte cultura desportiva, prepararíamos mais e melhores líderes e melhores equipes; teríamos uma população mais ativa e saudável (com menos fumantes!), e nosso país seria mais reconhecido internacionalmente e projetaríamos uma nova e positiva imagem de um aspecto adicional da cultura e das pessoas do nosso País.

É portanto muito claro, que uma vez que formos além de uma simples análise de custo benefício que analisa apenas o custo um estádio versus o valor dos ingressos vendidos, vamos perceber que o desenvolvimento de uma forte cultura desportiva juntamente com a educação pode ser uma força fundamental para estabelecer uma sociedade melhor.

Parabéns à China pela sua festa olímpica!

James Wright
Diretor, FIA Escola de Negócios

Monday, March 17, 2008

The new FIA MBA Challenge

Dear students and colleagues

One of the big impacts our students felt on visiting China is the realization that it is not only cheap labor that makes it a formidable international competitor. An outstanding achievement by the Chinese has been the ability to attract and develop industries through the affective integration of central, provincial and municipal level governments, together with investors, entrepreneurs, unions and workers. Even considering the existence of a strong central government, a single political party in power, environmental costs and worker safety issues still to be resolved, it is no small achievement to put together a competitive infrastructure for modern industry in a newly developing country.

Our alumni have created a magnificient social consulting program which has trained and implemented projects in over 500 social entreprises in Brazil.

The new challenge I would like to make to our students and friends worldwide is to discuss how Latin America, and Brazil in particular, can learn from some aspects of the Chinese experience, and promote rapid and sustainable growth of selected industries and regions in our country.

I specially invite to participate in this discussion not only our current students, but alumni from our International Executive MBA, our colleagues from partner schools overseas and other interested contributions. This effort will be open, non partisan, and focused on accelerating development and improving the quality of life of the Brazilian population in general.

Thanks for joining in !

James Wright
Director, FIA Business School

PS: If you feel more comfortable writing in Portuguese, we will translate your submissions.